According to a recent report by Standard Chartered Bank, India’s per capita income is expected to grow by around 70% to $4,000 by 2030 from the current $2,450, enabling it to become a middle-income country with a GDP of $6 trillion. The report suggests that more than half of India’s GDP by 2030 will come from household consumption. The biggest growth driver will be external trade, which is projected to nearly double to $2.1 trillion by 2030.
Nine states are predicted to achieve upper middle-income country status with a per capita income of $4,000. The second biggest growth driver will be household consumption, expected to reach $3.4 trillion by 2030. This comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of making the Indian economy a $5 trillion economy during his next term in office. Telangana currently has the highest per capita income, but the report predicts Gujarat will lead the list by 2030, followed by Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Haryana, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh.
According to the report, six states, namely Telangana, Delhi, Karnataka, Haryana, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh, currently contribute 20% to the national GDP, and they are expected to achieve a per capita GDP of $6,000 by 2030. However, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which together account for 25% of the population, are projected to have per capita incomes below $2,000 in 2030, which will still be double their 2020 levels.
The main driving force behind economic growth will be the higher proportion of the working-age population. Currently at 64.2%, this share is predicted to increase to 64.8% by 2030. By 2040, it may slightly dip to 63.6% and further decline to 61.1% in 2050. This favorable demographic trend is expected to enhance labor efficiency, capital utilization, and overall economic expansion.
The report also identifies other factors supporting growth, including consistent reform progress, macroeconomic stability, a robust financial sector, corporate sector deleveraging, and increased public investment. These enablers will play significant roles in shaping India’s economic trajectory in the coming years.