Economists anticipate thatis set to expand by 8.3% to 8.5% in the April-June 2022-23 quarter, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forecast of 8%. Despite the RBI’s initial projection of 8%, experts believe the actual growth might exceed this, likely reaching around 8.3% to 8.5%. Official data regarding India’s economic performance in Q1 2023-24 will be disclosed later this month. The previous March quarter saw a year-on-year real GDP growth of 6.1%.
Both the State Bank of India (SBI) and Icra have predicted a quicker economic expansion this quarter, attributing their expectations to increased capital expenditure by both the central government and states. The rating agency also noted that the comparatively low base effect, stemming from a significant GDP contraction in the initial quarter of FY21, would bolster growth this quarter. SBI’s Group Chief Economic Adviser, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, mentioned their use of 30 high-frequency indicators to calculate an estimated growth of 8.3% for the first quarter.
The services sector’s consistent robust growth and improved profit margins in the corporate sector have been cited as driving forces behind the overall economic expansion, according to both SBI and Icra. However, they differed in their projections for the entire fiscal year. SBI estimated a 6.7% growth for FY24, while Icra projected a lower 6% growth, significantly below the RBI’s estimate of 7.2%.
Several factors could influence India’s GDP growth in the upcoming quarters, including the speed of COVID-19 vaccination efforts and the pandemic’s trajectory, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its global trade ramifications, the RBI’s monetary policy decisions, and the government’s fiscal policy measures. The RBI is set to release official GDP growth data for the April-June quarter on August 31, 2023.