New Delhi: NITI Aayog on Monday unveiled the first three volumes of its flagship study on Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero, laying out how India can achieve high growth through 2047 while charting a credible path to net-zero emissions by 2070—but warning that the transition will require unprecedented capital mobilisation of $22.7 trillion and deeper integration with global finance.
The government think tank said at least $6.5 trillion of this requirement would need to come from external sources, underscoring the scale of the financing challenge and the need for domestic financial reforms alongside stronger global capital flows.
Growth and green transition, together
The 11-report series is India’s first government-led, multi-sector, integrated modelling exercise that links economic growth, development priorities and climate commitments. The three volumes released on Monday cover an overview of scenarios, macroeconomic implications, and financing needs.
The scenarios factor in historical trends, current policies and additional measures to accelerate electrification of demand, energy efficiency, circularity, low-carbon technologies and behavioural change under Mission LiFE, the Aayog said.
Officials stressed that Viksit Bharat @ 2047 is achievable across all scenarios, even as the economy pursues a long-term decarbonisation path.
Coal up, energy intensity down
In a key acknowledgement of transition realities, the report notes that India’s coal consumption will continue to rise till 2047, even as energy intensity declines and efficiency improves. The strategy, according to NITI Aayog, is straightforward: first, electrify energy use; second, green the power supply; third, control demand through Mission LiFE; and finally, push circularity and efficiency, supported by cheaper external finance.
At the same time, the Aayog argues that India can leapfrog into a global leadership position in clean technologies, especially since around 85% of the India of 2047 is yet to be built—giving policymakers and industry a rare chance to embed climate-friendly design into infrastructure, cities and manufacturing.
Macroeconomic stakes
The macroeconomic volume examines the impact of different transition pathways on GDP growth, investment, trade, jobs and public finance, while also flagging climate risks to agriculture, infrastructure and health, and the growing relevance of carbon-related trade barriers.
For policymakers, the message is that the green transition is not just an environmental imperative but a core economic strategy—with both trade-offs and synergies shaping India’s development trajectory over the next four decades.
What it means for investors and industry
For business and investors, the numbers signal a multi-decade investment cycle spanning power, transport, industry, buildings and critical minerals. The scale—over $22 trillion by 2070—suggests opportunities across clean energy, grid infrastructure, green mobility, manufacturing and climate tech, even as policy certainty and access to global capital become critical.
NITI Aayog said India’s development model could emerge as a template for the Global South, balancing growth aspirations with climate responsibility under the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.